What Will Remain? Predicting the Representation in Protected Areas of Suitable Habitat for Endangered Tropical Avifauna in Borneo under a Combined Climate- and Land-Use Change Scenario

The responses of threatened tropical avian species to projected climate change and land-use are important for evaluating the ability existing protected areas provide habitat these under future scenarios in biodiversity hotspots. This study uses Maxent, a distribution model that employs maximum entropy machine learning approach map spatial distributions habitats suitable International Union Conservation Nature birds present Borneo. We find very low coverage bird species’ (95%CI = 9.3–15.4%). Analysis suitability projections 18 suggests 2050, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B B1, with currently little may gain area but lose proportion this is protected. Large-ranged likely will inflate remaining areas. availability was most determinant both scenarios. Threat level, as measured by preferences considered here, Lowland or Lowland–Montane, poor predictors amount contraction expansion undergone species.